High latency cellular backhaul suspected to cause TOO_EARLY downlink transmission errors

Potentially yes in that basic SMTC PF is UDP based with no QoS/certainty of delivery - packets are just thrown out on a wing & a prayer and whilst most will get there…!, where BasicStation is more secure and being TCP/IP based will have opportunity for replay/redelivery/easier network snooping/diagnostics etc. Also have you confirmed that the ‘foreign’ service provider is routing/transiting UDP packets through ok? (again arrival of the staus messages would suggest yes…)